Polybet

Trade what happens next

Trade probabilities on future events. Each position’s price is set by supply and demand.

Live tape

$2,338 NO
Next Prime Minister of Canada 0x16fd…4a34
$189 NO
Ethereum Up or Down - September 5, 7:40PM-7:45… 0x1716…8290
$12,500 YES
Ethereum Up or Down - September 5, 7:40PM-7:45… 0x1730…baed
$13,249 NO
Trump approval above 50%? 0x1a76…fedf
$40,445 YES
Will there be a US recession this year? 0x1a8f…373b
$468 YES
Dogecoin Up or Down - September 5, 7:40PM-7:45… 0x1aa9…6f98
$62 NO
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Natus Vincere (BO3) 0x1ac2…a7f5
$474 NO
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays 0x1adc…e051
$306 YES
Bitcoin Up or Down 0x1af5…18ae
$1,220 YES
NBA: LeBron James Next Team 0x1b0e…510b
$4,595 NO
Ethereum Up or Down 0x1b28…8967
$14,250 NO
Solana Up or Down - September 5, 7:40PM-7:45PM… 0x1b41…c1c4
$30 YES
Trump approval above 50%? 0x1b5b…fa21
$7,841 YES
Bitcoin Up or Down 0x1b74…327d

Market brief

Current distribution of market expectations

Open interest $349.16M

24h volume $30.93M

All markets

Fed Decision in September?

50+ bps decrease 0% Yes No

25 bps decrease 0% Yes No

$95.5MVol. 16 sept fomc

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

14%

Chance

Yes14¢ No86¢

$14.0MVol. 1 jan Crypto

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Donald Trump 2% Yes No

J.D. Vance 50% Yes No

$699.1MVol. 7 nov United States

US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas 0% Yes No

Completed Match 100% Yes No

$1.6MVol. 11 sept Tennis

Brazil Presidential Election

Tarcisio de Freitas 0% Yes No

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 56% Yes No

$143.6MVol. 4 oct Politics

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 24% Yes No

Gavin Newsom 7% Yes No

$702.2MVol. 7 nov President

San Jose State vs. Eastern Michigan

San Jose State vs. Eastern Michigan 42% Yes No

Spread: Eastern Michigan (-4.5) 37% Yes No

$904.4KVol. 5 sept Sports

2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)

Jannik Sinner 0% Yes No

Carlos Alcaraz 47% Yes No

$19.7MVol. 13 sept US Open

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen 35% Yes No

Jordan Bardella 2% Yes No

$126.6MVol. 30 apr French Election

UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion

Paris Saint-Germain 14% Yes No

Aston Villa 1% Yes No

$23.4MVol. 31 may UCL

Bitcoin above ___ on September 5?

68,000 100% Yes No

70,000 100% Yes No

$946.9KVol. 5 sept Bitcoin

What price will Bitcoin hit in September?

↑ 100,000 5% Yes No

↑ 97,500 6% Yes No

$2.5MVol. 1 oct Bitcoin

US Open ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

US Open ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Daniel Merida Aguilar 72% Yes No

Completed Match 50% Yes No

$602.3KVol. 11 sept Tennis

US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Mariano Navone

US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Mariano Navone 90% Yes No

Completed Match 50% Yes No

$578.7KVol. 11 sept Tennis

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps) 93% Yes No

1 (25 bps) 4% Yes No

$51.3MVol. 31 dec Rewards 200, 4.5, 50 Deprec

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

May 31 0% Yes No

June 30 0% Yes No

$6.9MVol. 1 jul Politics

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies 63% Yes No

$514.9KVol. 12 sept Sports

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 14% Yes No

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 20% Yes No

$1272.3MVol. 7 nov United States

Which company has the best AI model end of September?

Anthropic 86% Yes No

$1.9MVol. 1 oct AI

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds 69% Yes No

NRFI 100% Yes No

$392.0KVol. 12 sept Sports