Polybet

Trade what happens next

Trade probabilities on future events. Each position’s price is set by supply and demand.

Live tape

$448 YES
Presidential Election Winner 2028 0x9f70…fe0c
$713 YES
Next Prime Minister of Canada 0x9f89…3669
$205 NO
LoL: Myth Esports vs Dynasty (BO3) 0x9fa3…6ec5
$24,425 YES
Ethereum Up or Down 0x9fbc…a722
$5,667 YES
Solana Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM… 0x9fd5…df7f
$33,223 NO
Next Prime Minister of Canada 0x9fef…17db
$62,013 NO
XRP Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET 0xa008…5038
$5,172 YES
XRP Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET 0xa022…8895
$1,813 NO
Dogecoin Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00… 0x9d0e…b55c
$2,406 NO
Will there be a US recession this year? 0x9d28…edb9
$316 YES
Fed Decision in July? 0x9d41…2616
$474 YES
Solana above $200? 0x9d5a…5e72
$14 NO
Dogecoin Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00… 0x9d74…96cf
$120 NO
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Natus Vincere (BO3) 0x9d8d…cf2c

Market brief

Current distribution of market expectations

Open interest $349.16M

24h volume $31.27M

Business

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps) 93% Yes No

1 (25 bps) 4% Yes No

11 more

$51.3MVol. 31 dec Rewards 200, 4.5, 50 Deprec

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

SpaceX 42% Yes No

OpenAI 2% Yes No

72 more

$5.9MVol. 31 dec Climate & Science

Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA 80% Yes No

Microsoft 1% Yes No

26 more

$6.6MVol. 31 dec Economy

Largest Company end of September?

Alphabet 1% Yes No

Tesla 0% Yes No

23 more

$1.2MVol. 1 oct Tech

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

Chance

Yes3¢ No97¢

$190.9KVol. 1 jan Business

AI bubble burst by...?

March 31, 2026 0% Yes No

December 31, 2026 15% Yes No

1 more

$3.0MVol. 1 jan Business

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

<500B 0% Yes No

500–750B 1% Yes No

5 more

$210.8KVol. 1 jan IPO

IPOs before 2027?

Discord 22% Yes No

Stripe 3% Yes No

32 more

$7.1MVol. 1 jan Business

Lead Bank in Anthropic's IPO?

Morgan Stanley 71% Yes No

Goldman Sachs 30% Yes No

17 more

$54.9KVol. 1 jan Finance

Discord IPO Closing Market Cap

<5B 6% Yes No

5–8B 7% Yes No

6 more

$52.8KVol. 1 jan IPO

Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?

MicroStrategy 3% Yes No

Beyond Meat 16% Yes No

13 more

$236.5KVol. 1 jan Corporate Financials

GPU rental prices (A100) end of September?

<$0.50 0% Yes No

$0.50-$0.75 4% Yes No

4 more

$40.0KVol. 1 oct AI

Deepseek IPO by...?

December 31, 2026 3% Yes No

March 31, 2027 21% Yes No

3 more

$24.0KVol. 1 jan AI

3rd Largest Company end of September?

NVIDIA 1% Yes No

Microsoft 12% Yes No

27 more

$125.0KVol. 1 oct Tech

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Google 23% Yes No

OpenAI 30% Yes No

12 more

$142.0KVol. 1 jan AI

Which companies will be acquired before 2027?

Brown-Forman 14% Yes No

MGM Resorts 34% Yes No

17 more

$18.2MVol. 1 jan Business

3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA 3% Yes No

Microsoft 15% Yes No

28 more

$16.5KVol. 1 jan Tech

GPU rental prices (A100) end of October?

<$0.50 1% Yes No

$0.50-$0.75 14% Yes No

4 more

$24.2KVol. 1 nov AI

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

97%

Chance

Yes97¢ No3¢

$336.7KVol. 31 dec sam altman

OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?

13%

Chance

Yes13¢ No88¢

$301.0KVol. 1 jan Big Tech