Polybet

Trade what happens next

Trade probabilities on future events. Each position’s price is set by supply and demand.

Live tape

$7,328 YES
Bitcoin Up or Down 0xa237…282f
$2,868 NO
Ethereum Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00… 0xa250…608b
$19,675 YES
Trump approval above 50%? 0xa26a…98e8
$73 NO
LoL: Myth Esports vs Dynasty (BO3) 0xa283…d145
$33,768 YES
LoL: Myth Esports vs Dynasty (BO3) 0xa29d…09a1
$240 YES
Dogecoin Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00… 0xa2b6…41fe
$5,940 NO
Dogecoin Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00… 0xa2cf…7a5b
$958 YES
NBA: LeBron James Next Team 0xa2e9…b2b7
$387 NO
Solana Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM… 0xa302…eb14
$439 YES
Bitcoin Up or Down 0xa31b…2371
$47 NO
XRP Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET 0xa335…5bcd
$1,729 NO
Trump approval above 50%? 0xa34e…942a
$1,191 YES
XRP Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET 0xa03b…c0f1
$67 NO
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00P… 0xa054…f94e

Market brief

Current distribution of market expectations

Open interest $349.16M

24h volume $31.27M

Finance

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps) 93% Yes No

1 (25 bps) 4% Yes No

11 more

$51.3MVol. 31 dec Rewards 200, 4.5, 50 Deprec

What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?

↑ $150 1% Yes No

↑ $140 1% Yes No

23 more

$1.3MVol. 1 oct Finance

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

SpaceX 42% Yes No

OpenAI 2% Yes No

72 more

$5.9MVol. 31 dec Climate & Science

Anthropic IPO by __?

June 30, 2026 0% Yes No

July 31, 2026 0% Yes No

5 more

$2.4MVol. 1 jul Finance

Fed rate hike by...?

April Meeting 0% Yes No

June Meeting 0% Yes No

3 more

$2.8MVol. 29 oct Fed

Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA 80% Yes No

Microsoft 1% Yes No

26 more

$6.6MVol. 31 dec Economy

Fed rate cut by...?

January Meeting 0% Yes No

March Meeting 0% Yes No

6 more

$3.4MVol. 8 jan Jerome Powell

Crude Oil all time high by...?

May 31 0% Yes No

June 30 0% Yes No

2 more

$3.3MVol. 1 jan Oil

Largest Company end of September?

Alphabet 1% Yes No

Tesla 0% Yes No

23 more

$1.2MVol. 1 oct Tech

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

Chance

Yes3¢ No97¢

$190.9KVol. 1 jan Business

Bank of Russia decision in September?

Decrease 32% Yes No

No Change 65% Yes No

1 more

$183.8KVol. 12 sept macro

What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?

↑ $5,000 0% Yes No

↑ $4,500 50% Yes No

10 more

$1.6MVol. 31 dec Gold

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

<$1.25T 1% Yes No

$1.25–$1.5T 2% Yes No

8 more

$587.6KVol. 1 jan Finance

STRC hits $100 by…

June 30 0% Yes No

September 30 34% Yes No

1 more

$806.0KVol. 1 jan STRC

Oura IPO Closing Market Cap

<$7.5B 1% Yes No

$7.5B–$10B 2% Yes No

6 more

$383.6KVol. 1 jan Finance

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

↑$3.0T 27% Yes No

↑$2.5T 49% Yes No

11 more

$4.5MVol. 1 jan Finance

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?

↑$3.0T 6% Yes No

↑$2.5T 8% Yes No

13 more

$1.1MVol. 1 jan Finance

What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in September 2026?

↑ $5,300 3% Yes No

↑ $5,200 2% Yes No

21 more

$69.3KVol. 1 oct Finance

In which month will Anthropic IPO?

September 2026 3% Yes No

October 2026 81% Yes No

15 more

$147.0KVol. 1 jan AI

AI bubble burst by...?

March 31, 2026 0% Yes No

December 31, 2026 16% Yes No

1 more

$3.0MVol. 1 jan Business