Polybet

Trade what happens next

Trade probabilities on future events. Each position’s price is set by supply and demand.

Live tape

$10,839 NO
Dogecoin Up or Down - September 6, 8PM ET 0xa0ed…4b7a
$16 NO
LoL: Myth Esports vs Dynasty (BO3) 0xa106…83d7
$95,183 YES
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Natus Vincere (BO3) 0xa120…bc33
$30,700 YES
LoL: Myth Esports vs Dynasty (BO3) 0xa139…f490
$21 NO
Fed Decision in July? 0xa152…2ced
$585 YES
Next Prime Minister of Canada 0xa16c…6549
$64 YES
Ethereum Up or Down - September 6, 8PM ET 0xa185…9da6
$1,460 NO
Presidential Election Winner 2028 0xa19f…d603
$28 YES
Will there be a US recession this year? 0xa1b8…0e5f
$269 NO
Solana above $200? 0xa4fe…5251
$1,889 YES
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 8PM ET 0xa517…8aae
$330 NO
Next Prime Minister of Canada 0xa531…c30a
$670 NO
Solana above $200? 0xa54a…fb67
$10,450 YES
Dogecoin Up or Down - September 6, 8PM ET 0xa564…33c4

Market brief

Current distribution of market expectations

Open interest $349.16M

24h volume $31.27M

Tech

Which company has the best AI model end of September?

Anthropic 86% Yes No

$1.9MVol. 1 oct AI

Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA 80% Yes No

Microsoft 1% Yes No

$6.6MVol. 31 dec Economy

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by...?

September 15 20% Yes No

September 30 34% Yes No

$482.9KVol. 1 jan KPIs

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

Google 9% Yes No

Anthropic 60% Yes No

$1.0MVol. 1 jan Tech

OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?

1480+ 69% Yes No

1490+ 44% Yes No

$131.5KVol. 14 aug AI

Largest Company end of September?

Alphabet 1% Yes No

Tesla 0% Yes No

$1.2MVol. 1 oct Tech

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

Anthropic 75% Yes No

$149.2KVol. 1 nov AI

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

28%

Chance

Yes28¢ No73¢

$138.7KVol. 31 dec Tech

Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?

Anthropic 78% Yes No

OpenAI 21% Yes No

$179.9KVol. 1 oct AI

Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by...?

August 31 0% Yes No

October 31 69% Yes No

$14.9KVol. 1 dec AI

Next Sonnet Model: Text Arena Debut?

1470+ 40% Yes No

1480+ 29% Yes No

$10.6KVol. 1 jan AI

AI bubble burst by...?

March 31, 2026 0% Yes No

December 31, 2026 16% Yes No

$3.0MVol. 1 jan Business

Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

50%+ 92% Yes No

55%+ 82% Yes No

$72.9KVol. 1 jan AI

Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)

Anthropic 46% Yes No

$76.4KVol. 1 oct AI

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?

↑ 1510 100% Yes No

↑ 1520 94% Yes No

$178.2KVol. 1 jan AI Benchmarks

#1 Searched Movie on Google 2026?

Wicked: For Good 0% Yes No

Wuthering Heights 1% Yes No

$183.4KVol. 1 jan Tech

Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

Alibaba 68% Yes No

Moonshot 26% Yes No

$206.1KVol. 1 oct AI

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?

1510 100% Yes No

1520 92% Yes No

$187.0KVol. 1 oct Tech

Will OpenAI's Astra model debut as #1? (Text Arena)

14%

Chance

Yes14¢ No86¢

$10.9KVol. 1 jul AI

Second-best AI Lab end of September?

Anthropic 17% Yes No

Meta 10% Yes No

$76.2KVol. 1 oct AI