Polybet

Trade what happens next

Trade probabilities on future events. Each position’s price is set by supply and demand.

Live tape

$7,804 NO
BNB Up or Down - September 6, 8PM ET 0xa596…a47d
$51 YES
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 8PM ET 0xa5b0…dcda
$4,720 NO
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Natus Vincere (BO3) 0xa5c9…1536
$690 NO
Solana above $200? 0xa5e3…4d93
$254 YES
Solana Up or Down - September 6, 8PM ET 0xa5fc…85f0
$330 YES
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Natus Vincere (BO3) 0xa615…be4c
$699 NO
Next Prime Minister of Canada 0xa62f…f6a9
$578 YES
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays 0xa648…2f06
$3,139 YES
XRP Up or Down - September 6, 8PM ET 0xa662…6762
$453 NO
Trump approval above 50%? 0xa67b…9fbf
$21 NO
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 8PM ET 0xa368…cc87
$372 YES
NBA: LeBron James Next Team 0xa381…04e3
$73 NO
XRP Up or Down - September 6, 8PM ET 0xa39a…3d40
$5,415 NO
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Natus Vincere (BO3) 0xa3b4…759d

Market brief

Current distribution of market expectations

Open interest $349.16M

24h volume $31.27M

All markets

Fed Decision in September?

50+ bps decrease 0% Yes No

25 bps decrease 0% Yes No

$95.6MVol. 16 sept fomc

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

14%

Chance

Yes14¢ No86¢

$14.0MVol. 1 jan Crypto

US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas 0% Yes No

Completed Match 100% Yes No

$1.7MVol. 11 sept Tennis

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Donald Trump 2% Yes No

J.D. Vance 50% Yes No

$699.1MVol. 7 nov United States

Brazil Presidential Election

Tarcisio de Freitas 0% Yes No

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 56% Yes No

$143.6MVol. 4 oct Politics

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 24% Yes No

Gavin Newsom 7% Yes No

$702.3MVol. 7 nov President

San Jose State vs. Eastern Michigan

San Jose State vs. Eastern Michigan 56% Yes No

Spread: Eastern Michigan (-4.5) 25% Yes No

$927.3KVol. 5 sept Sports

2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)

Jannik Sinner 0% Yes No

Carlos Alcaraz 47% Yes No

$19.8MVol. 13 sept US Open

US Open ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

US Open ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Daniel Merida Aguilar 89% Yes No

Completed Match 100% Yes No

$725.2KVol. 11 sept Tennis

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen 35% Yes No

Jordan Bardella 2% Yes No

$126.6MVol. 30 apr French Election

UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion

Paris Saint-Germain 14% Yes No

Aston Villa 1% Yes No

$23.4MVol. 31 may UCL

Bitcoin above ___ on September 5?

68,000 100% Yes No

70,000 100% Yes No

$947.8KVol. 5 sept Bitcoin

What price will Bitcoin hit in September?

↑ 100,000 5% Yes No

↑ 97,500 6% Yes No

$2.5MVol. 1 oct Bitcoin

US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Mariano Navone

US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Mariano Navone 100% Yes No

Completed Match 50% Yes No

$616.7KVol. 11 sept Tennis

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps) 93% Yes No

1 (25 bps) 4% Yes No

$51.3MVol. 31 dec Rewards 200, 4.5, 50 Deprec

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

May 31 0% Yes No

June 30 0% Yes No

$6.9MVol. 1 jul Politics

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies 56% Yes No

$516.9KVol. 12 sept Sports

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 14% Yes No

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 20% Yes No

$1272.4MVol. 7 nov United States

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds 38% Yes No

NRFI 100% Yes No

$409.9KVol. 12 sept Sports

Which company has the best AI model end of September?

Anthropic 86% Yes No

$1.9MVol. 1 oct AI