Polybet

Trade what happens next

Trade probabilities on future events. Each position’s price is set by supply and demand.

Live tape

$1,150 YES
Ethereum Up or Down 0x9e8b…02ca
$106 NO
Ethereum Up or Down 0xa1d1…46bc
$1,088 NO
Solana Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM… 0xa1eb…7f19
$273 YES
Fed Decision in July? 0xa204…b775
$2,580 NO
Ethereum Up or Down 0xa21e…efd2
$7,328 YES
Bitcoin Up or Down 0xa237…282f
$2,868 NO
Ethereum Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00… 0xa250…608b
$19,675 YES
Trump approval above 50%? 0xa26a…98e8
$73 NO
LoL: Myth Esports vs Dynasty (BO3) 0xa283…d145
$33,768 YES
LoL: Myth Esports vs Dynasty (BO3) 0xa29d…09a1
$240 YES
Dogecoin Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00… 0xa2b6…41fe
$5,940 NO
Dogecoin Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00… 0xa2cf…7a5b
$958 YES
NBA: LeBron James Next Team 0xa2e9…b2b7
$387 NO
Solana Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM… 0xa302…eb14

Market brief

Current distribution of market expectations

Open interest $349.16M

24h volume $31.27M

IPO

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

SpaceX 42% Yes No

OpenAI 2% Yes No

$5.9MVol. 31 dec Climate & Science

Anthropic IPO by __?

June 30, 2026 0% Yes No

July 31, 2026 0% Yes No

$2.4MVol. 1 jul Finance

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

<$1.25T 1% Yes No

$1.25–$1.5T 2% Yes No

$587.6KVol. 1 jan Finance

Oura IPO Closing Market Cap

<$7.5B 1% Yes No

$7.5B–$10B 2% Yes No

$383.6KVol. 1 jan Finance

In which month will Anthropic IPO?

September 2026 3% Yes No

October 2026 81% Yes No

$147.0KVol. 1 jan AI

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

<500B 0% Yes No

500–750B 1% Yes No

$210.8KVol. 1 jan IPO

What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?

<$1.25T 1% Yes No

$1.25–$1.50T 0% Yes No

$28.9KVol. 1 jan AI

Lead Bank in Anthropic's IPO?

Morgan Stanley 72% Yes No

Goldman Sachs 31% Yes No

$54.9KVol. 1 jan Finance

Discord IPO Closing Market Cap

5–8B 7% Yes No

$52.8KVol. 1 jan IPO

Deepseek IPO by...?

December 31, 2026 3% Yes No

March 31, 2027 21% Yes No

$24.0KVol. 1 jan AI

What will Anthropic's public ticker be?

$ANAI 0% Yes No

$88.6KVol. 1 jan Finance

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

97%

Chance

Yes97¢ No3¢

$336.7KVol. 31 dec sam altman

OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?

13%

Chance

Yes13¢ No88¢

$301.0KVol. 1 jan Big Tech

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)

<0.6T 1% Yes No

0.6–0.9T 1% Yes No

$390.6KVol. 1 jan AI

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

<500B 0% Yes No

500–750B 0% Yes No

$2.1MVol. 1 jan IPO

OpenAI IPO by...?

August 31, 2026 0% Yes No

September 30, 2026 1% Yes No

$2.9MVol. 31 dec OpenAI IPO

JIO Platforms IPO by...?

July 31 0% Yes No

August 31 0% Yes No

$24.7KVol. 1 jan AI

Bloomberg IPO by...?

December 31, 2026 10% Yes No

March 31, 2027 16% Yes No

$4.9KVol. 1 jan AI

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

$1.0T–$1.25T 10% Yes No

$98.0KVol. 1 jul Finance

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)

<100B 0% Yes No

100–200B 0% Yes No

$443.6KVol. 1 jan AI