Polybet

Trade what happens next

Trade probabilities on future events. Each position’s price is set by supply and demand.

Live tape

$106 NO
Ethereum Up or Down 0xa1d1…46bc
$1,088 NO
Solana Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM… 0xa1eb…7f19
$273 YES
Fed Decision in July? 0xa204…b775
$2,580 NO
Ethereum Up or Down 0xa21e…efd2
$7,328 YES
Bitcoin Up or Down 0xa237…282f
$2,868 NO
Ethereum Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00… 0xa250…608b
$19,675 YES
Trump approval above 50%? 0xa26a…98e8
$73 NO
LoL: Myth Esports vs Dynasty (BO3) 0xa283…d145
$33,768 YES
LoL: Myth Esports vs Dynasty (BO3) 0xa29d…09a1
$240 YES
Dogecoin Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00… 0xa2b6…41fe
$5,940 NO
Dogecoin Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00… 0xa2cf…7a5b
$958 YES
NBA: LeBron James Next Team 0xa2e9…b2b7
$387 NO
Solana Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM… 0xa302…eb14
$439 YES
Bitcoin Up or Down 0xa31b…2371

Market brief

Current distribution of market expectations

Open interest $349.16M

24h volume $31.27M

Elections

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Donald Trump 2% Yes No

J.D. Vance 50% Yes No

$699.1MVol. 7 nov United States

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 24% Yes No

Gavin Newsom 7% Yes No

$702.2MVol. 7 nov President

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen 35% Yes No

Jordan Bardella 2% Yes No

$126.6MVol. 30 apr French Election

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 14% Yes No

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 20% Yes No

$1272.3MVol. 7 nov United States

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Benjamin Netanyahu 31% Yes No

Naftali Bennett 9% Yes No

$35.3MVol. 31 dec Main Election

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Tarcisio de Freitas 0% Yes No

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 7% Yes No

$6.5MVol. 4 oct Brazil

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

United Russia (ER) 69% Yes No

Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 1% Yes No

$24.9MVol. 20 sept Politics

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Ulf Kristersson 22% Yes No

Magdalena Andersson 79% Yes No

$4.7MVol. 13 sept Elections

Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?

48%

Chance

Yes48¢ No52¢

$72.5KVol. 13 sept Sweden

Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?

1%

Chance

Yes1¢ No99¢

$385.8KVol. 21 sept Russia

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party 89% Yes No

Republican Party 12% Yes No

$10.1MVol. 3 nov Parent For Derivative

Trump out as President before 2027?

6%

Chance

Yes6¢ No95¢

$11.4MVol. 1 jan Politics

Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?

3-5% 23% Yes No

$108.2KVol. 7 sept World

Berlin State Election Winner

$3.5MVol. 20 sept World Elections

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep 50% Yes No

D Senate, R House 1% Yes No

$11.0MVol. 3 nov United States

United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?

280–294 2% Yes No

$376.8KVol. 20 sept Russia Election

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Mugur Isărescu 0% Yes No

Mircea Geoană 0% Yes No

$3.5MVol. 31 dec Politics

Next Premier of Quebec

Bernard Drainville 0% Yes No

Christine Fréchette 33% Yes No

$302.4KVol. 5 oct Global Elections

Berlin State Elections: CDU # of seats?

25-29 13% Yes No

$33.0KVol. 21 sept Berlin

NH-01 Republican Primary Winner

Melissa Bailey 0% Yes No

Brian Cole 0% Yes No

$110.3KVol. 8 sept House Primary