Polybet

Trade what happens next

Trade probabilities on future events. Each position’s price is set by supply and demand.

Live tape

$30,550 NO
NBA: LeBron James Next Team 0x9ebe…7384
$88 YES
Trump approval above 50%? 0x9ed7…abe0
$71,789 NO
Presidential Election Winner 2028 0x9ef1…e43d
$8,478 YES
Ethereum Up or Down 0x9f0a…1c9a
$703 YES
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00P… 0x9f24…54f6
$49,960 NO
BNB Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET 0x9f3d…8d53
$221 NO
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00P… 0x9f56…c5b0
$448 YES
Presidential Election Winner 2028 0x9f70…fe0c
$713 YES
Next Prime Minister of Canada 0x9f89…3669
$205 NO
LoL: Myth Esports vs Dynasty (BO3) 0x9fa3…6ec5
$24,425 YES
Ethereum Up or Down 0x9fbc…a722
$5,667 YES
Solana Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM… 0x9fd5…df7f
$33,223 NO
Next Prime Minister of Canada 0x9fef…17db
$62,013 NO
XRP Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET 0xa008…5038

Market brief

Current distribution of market expectations

Open interest $349.16M

24h volume $31.27M

Economy

Fed Decision in September?

50+ bps decrease 0% Yes No

25 bps decrease 0% Yes No

$95.5MVol. 16 sept fomc

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps) 93% Yes No

1 (25 bps) 4% Yes No

$51.3MVol. 31 dec Rewards 200, 4.5, 50 Deprec

Fed rate hike in 2026?

72%

Chance

Yes72¢ No28¢

$8.7MVol. 9 dec CPI Release

Fed Decision in October?

50+ bps decrease 1% Yes No

25 bps decrease 5% Yes No

$1.3MVol. 29 oct Fed

Fed rate hike by...?

April Meeting 0% Yes No

June Meeting 0% Yes No

$2.8MVol. 29 oct Fed

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

27%

Chance

Yes27¢ No74¢

$10.4MVol. 31 dec Politics

Fed Decision in December?

50+ bps decrease 1% Yes No

25 bps decrease 5% Yes No

$528.8KVol. 10 dec Fed

Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA 80% Yes No

Microsoft 1% Yes No

$6.6MVol. 31 dec Economy

Fed rate cut by...?

January Meeting 0% Yes No

March Meeting 0% Yes No

$3.4MVol. 8 jan Jerome Powell

ECB Interest Rates: September 2026

50+ bps decrease 0% Yes No

25 bps decrease 0% Yes No

$404.5KVol. 10 sept ECB

Largest Company end of September?

Alphabet 1% Yes No

Tesla 0% Yes No

$1.2MVol. 1 oct Tech

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

3%

Chance

Yes3¢ No97¢

$190.9KVol. 1 jan Business

Bank of Russia decision in September?

Decrease 32% Yes No

No Change 65% Yes No

$183.8KVol. 12 sept macro

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

$496.3KVol. 1 feb Macro indicators

Bank of Japan Decision in September?

50+ bps decrease 0% Yes No

25 bps decrease 0% Yes No

$579.5KVol. 18 sept BOJ

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Hike–Pause–Hike 11% Yes No

Hike–Pause–Pause 13% Yes No

$10.9KVol. 10 dec Fed

Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

Cut–Pause–Pause 0% Yes No

Cut–Pause–Cut 0% Yes No

$831.4KVol. 16 sept Fed

August Inflation US - Annual

≤2.9% 0% Yes No

$70.5KVol. 11 sept CPI

Bank of England decision in November?

50+ bps decrease 0% Yes No

25 bps decrease 1% Yes No

$40.5KVol. 6 nov BOE

What will the median home value in Miami be on September 30?

<$1.017M 1% Yes No

$1.017M - $1.053M 5% Yes No

$69.1KVol. 30 sept Parcl