Polybet

Trade what happens next

Trade probabilities on future events. Each position’s price is set by supply and demand.

Live tape

$30,550 NO
NBA: LeBron James Next Team 0x9ebe…7384
$88 YES
Trump approval above 50%? 0x9ed7…abe0
$71,789 NO
Presidential Election Winner 2028 0x9ef1…e43d
$8,478 YES
Ethereum Up or Down 0x9f0a…1c9a
$703 YES
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00P… 0x9f24…54f6
$49,960 NO
BNB Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET 0x9f3d…8d53
$221 NO
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00P… 0x9f56…c5b0
$448 YES
Presidential Election Winner 2028 0x9f70…fe0c
$713 YES
Next Prime Minister of Canada 0x9f89…3669
$205 NO
LoL: Myth Esports vs Dynasty (BO3) 0x9fa3…6ec5
$24,425 YES
Ethereum Up or Down 0x9fbc…a722
$5,667 YES
Solana Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM… 0x9fd5…df7f
$33,223 NO
Next Prime Minister of Canada 0x9fef…17db
$62,013 NO
XRP Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET 0xa008…5038

Market brief

Current distribution of market expectations

Open interest $349.16M

24h volume $31.27M

Politics

Fed Decision in September?

50+ bps decrease 0% Yes No

25 bps decrease 0% Yes No

$95.5MVol. 16 sept fomc

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

14%

Chance

Yes14¢ No86¢

$14.0MVol. 1 jan Crypto

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Donald Trump 2% Yes No

J.D. Vance 50% Yes No

$699.1MVol. 7 nov United States

Brazil Presidential Election

Tarcisio de Freitas 0% Yes No

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 56% Yes No

$143.6MVol. 4 oct Politics

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 24% Yes No

Gavin Newsom 7% Yes No

$702.2MVol. 7 nov President

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen 35% Yes No

Jordan Bardella 2% Yes No

$126.6MVol. 30 apr French Election

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

May 31 0% Yes No

June 30 0% Yes No

$6.9MVol. 1 jul Politics

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 14% Yes No

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 20% Yes No

$1272.3MVol. 7 nov United States

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

July 24 0% Yes No

July 31 0% Yes No

$25.6MVol. 1 jan Iran

Israel closes its airspace by...?

May 8 0% Yes No

May 31 0% Yes No

$28.3MVol. 1 oct Politics

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Benjamin Netanyahu 31% Yes No

Naftali Bennett 9% Yes No

$35.3MVol. 31 dec Main Election

Elon Musk # tweets September 3 - September 5, 2026?

40-64 18% Yes No

$414.7KVol. 5 sept Culture

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Tarcisio de Freitas 0% Yes No

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 7% Yes No

$6.5MVol. 4 oct Brazil

Elon Musk # tweets September 1 - September 8, 2026?

20-39 0% Yes No

$772.5KVol. 8 sept Culture

Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by...?

December 31, 2026 8% Yes No

December 31, 2027 20% Yes No

$422.8KVol. 1 jan Courts

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

September 4 41% Yes No

September 11 63% Yes No

$258.4KVol. 1 oct Iran

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

14%

Chance

Yes14¢ No86¢

$64.8MVol. 1 jan Military Strikes

Iran leadership change by...?

September 30 4% Yes No

July 31 0% Yes No

$24.7MVol. 1 jul Politics

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

2%

Chance

Yes2¢ No98¢

$7.8MVol. 30 sept Oil

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

United Russia (ER) 69% Yes No

Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 1% Yes No

$24.9MVol. 20 sept Politics