Polybet

Trade what happens next

Trade probabilities on future events. Each position’s price is set by supply and demand.

Live tape

$7,328 YES
Bitcoin Up or Down 0xa237…282f
$2,868 NO
Ethereum Up or Down - September 6, 8PM ET 0xa250…608b
$19,675 YES
Trump approval above 50%? 0xa26a…98e8
$73 NO
LoL: Myth Esports vs Dynasty (BO3) 0xa283…d145
$33,768 YES
LoL: Myth Esports vs Dynasty (BO3) 0xa29d…09a1
$240 YES
Dogecoin Up or Down - September 6, 8PM ET 0xa2b6…41fe
$5,940 NO
Dogecoin Up or Down - September 6, 8PM ET 0xa2cf…7a5b
$958 YES
NBA: LeBron James Next Team 0xa2e9…b2b7
$387 NO
Solana Up or Down - September 6, 8PM ET 0xa302…eb14
$439 YES
Bitcoin Up or Down 0xa31b…2371
$47 NO
XRP Up or Down - September 6, 8PM ET 0xa335…5bcd
$1,729 NO
Trump approval above 50%? 0xa34e…942a
$1,191 YES
XRP Up or Down - September 6, 8PM ET 0xa03b…c0f1
$67 NO
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 8PM ET 0xa054…f94e

Market brief

Current distribution of market expectations

Open interest $349.16M

24h volume $31.27M

Macro indicators

Fed Decision in October?

50+ bps decrease 1% Yes No

25 bps decrease 5% Yes No

$1.3MVol. 29 oct Fed

Fed Decision in December?

50+ bps decrease 1% Yes No

25 bps decrease 5% Yes No

$528.8KVol. 10 dec Fed

ECB Interest Rates: September 2026

50+ bps decrease 0% Yes No

25 bps decrease 0% Yes No

$404.5KVol. 10 sept ECB

Bank of Russia decision in September?

Decrease 32% Yes No

No Change 65% Yes No

$183.8KVol. 12 sept macro

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

$496.3KVol. 1 feb Macro indicators

August Inflation US - Annual

≤2.9% 0% Yes No

$70.5KVol. 11 sept CPI

Bank of England decision in November?

50+ bps decrease 0% Yes No

25 bps decrease 1% Yes No

$40.5KVol. 6 nov BOE

August Inflation US - Monthly

≤-0.3% 0% Yes No

-0.2% 4% Yes No

$20.6KVol. 11 sept CPI

Core CPI MoM - August 2026

≤0.0% 9% Yes No

0.1% 16% Yes No

$9.8KVol. 11 sept CPI

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↑ 5.0% 2% Yes No

↑ 5.5% 3% Yes No

$1.8MVol. 31 dec Jerome Powell

Core CPI YoY - August 2026

≤2.0% 1% Yes No

$18.2KVol. 11 sept CPI

Bank of England decision in September?

50+ bps decrease 0% Yes No

25 bps decrease 0% Yes No

$232.8KVol. 18 sept BOE

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

50+ bps decrease 0% Yes No

25 bps decrease 0% Yes No

$52.2KVol. 29 oct ECB

Core PCE MoM - August 2026

≤-0.1% 23% Yes No

0.0% 19% Yes No

$2.3KVol. 30 sept PCE

Bank of Brazil decision in November?

50+ bps increase 0% Yes No

25 bps increase 1% Yes No

$13.1KVol. 4 nov Brazil

ISM Services PMI - September 2026

<51.0 6% Yes No

51.0 to 51.9 3% Yes No

$914Vol. 5 oct ISM

August Inflation China - Annual

≤0.2% 1% Yes No

0.3% - 0.4% 6% Yes No

$22.1KVol. 10 sept CPI

September Unemployment Rate

≤3.8% 9% Yes No

$544Vol. 2 oct jobs

Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026

<2.0% 1% Yes No

2.0-2.2% 0% Yes No

$25.2KVol. 31 dec Japan

How high will inflation get in 2026?

Above 4.5% 13% Yes No

Above 3% 100% Yes No

$1.4MVol. 1 jan Inflation