Polybet

Trade what happens next

Trade probabilities on future events. Each position’s price is set by supply and demand.

Live tape

$33,768 YES
LoL: Myth Esports vs Dynasty (BO3) 0xa29d…09a1
$240 YES
Dogecoin Up or Down - September 6, 8PM ET 0xa2b6…41fe
$5,940 NO
Dogecoin Up or Down - September 6, 8PM ET 0xa2cf…7a5b
$958 YES
NBA: LeBron James Next Team 0xa2e9…b2b7
$387 NO
Solana Up or Down - September 6, 8PM ET 0xa302…eb14
$439 YES
Bitcoin Up or Down 0xa31b…2371
$47 NO
XRP Up or Down - September 6, 8PM ET 0xa335…5bcd
$1,729 NO
Trump approval above 50%? 0xa34e…942a
$1,191 YES
XRP Up or Down - September 6, 8PM ET 0xa03b…c0f1
$67 NO
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 8PM ET 0xa054…f94e
$694 YES
Presidential Election Winner 2028 0xa06e…31ab
$989 YES
Ethereum Up or Down - September 6, 8PM ET 0xa087…6a07
$356 NO
XRP Up or Down - September 6, 8PM ET 0xa0a1…a264
$74 YES
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Natus Vincere (BO3) 0xa0ba…dac1

Market brief

Current distribution of market expectations

Open interest $349.16M

24h volume $31.27M

Midterms

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party 89% Yes No

Republican Party 12% Yes No

$10.1MVol. 3 nov Parent For Derivative

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep 50% Yes No

D Senate, R House 1% Yes No

$11.0MVol. 3 nov United States

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party 52% Yes No

Republican Party 50% Yes No

$4.1MVol. 3 nov Senate

MO-05 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 21%+ 0% Yes No

Republican 18-21% 0% Yes No

$15.2KVol. 3 nov Midterms

Texas Senate Election Winner

James Talarico (D) 51% Yes No

Ken Paxton (R) 50% Yes No

$993.0KVol. 3 nov Texas Senate

Ohio Governor Election Winner

Amy Acton (D) 56% Yes No

Vivek Ramaswamy (R) 45% Yes No

$181.5KVol. 3 nov Ohio Midterm

Alaska Governor Election Winner

Click Bishop 0% Yes No

David Bronson 3% Yes No

$1.2MVol. 3 nov Alaska Midterm

TX-06 House Election Winner

Republican Party 92% Yes No

Democratic Party 8% Yes No

$39.6KVol. 3 nov Politics

CA-45 House Election Winner

Republican Party 11% Yes No

Democratic Party 91% Yes No

$35.5KVol. 3 nov Politics

Maine Senate Election Winner

Troy Jackson (D) 70% Yes No

Susan Collins (R) 31% Yes No

$1.2MVol. 3 nov Maine Midterm

NY-19 House Election Winner

Republican Party 7% Yes No

Democratic Party 93% Yes No

$14.1KVol. 4 nov Midterms

MO-05 House Election Winner

Republican Party 12% Yes No

Democratic Party 86% Yes No

$18.8KVol. 4 nov Midterms

Michigan Senate Election Winner

Abdul El-Sayed (D) 65% Yes No

Mike Rogers (R) 35% Yes No

$648.2KVol. 3 nov Michigan Midterm

California Governor Election: Fresno County Winner

Xavier Becerra 31% Yes No

Steve Hilton 67% Yes No

$2.8KVol. 4 nov Midterms

Which Senate races will be within 5%?

Texas 79% Yes No

Maine 57% Yes No

$58.4KVol. 4 nov Senate

WI-06 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 30%+ 4% Yes No

Republican 25-30% 7% Yes No

$1.8KVol. 3 nov Midterms

Who will win the Democratic nomination for Providence, Rhode Island Mayor?

David Morales 85% Yes No

Brett Smiley 16% Yes No

$33.8KVol. 9 sept mayor

Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?

California 97% Yes No

Texas 98% Yes No

$402.8KVol. 3 nov Politics

Michigan Senate Election: Genesee County Winner

Abdul El-Sayed (D) 79% Yes No

Mike Rogers (R) 11% Yes No

$2.6KVol. 4 nov Midterms

Michigan Senate Election: Kent County Winner

Abdul El-Sayed (D) 75% Yes No

Mike Rogers (R) 14% Yes No

$1.5KVol. 4 nov Midterms