Polybet

Trade what happens next

Trade probabilities on future events. Each position’s price is set by supply and demand.

Live tape

$448 YES
Presidential Election Winner 2028 0x9f70…fe0c
$713 YES
Next Prime Minister of Canada 0x9f89…3669
$205 NO
LoL: Myth Esports vs Dynasty (BO3) 0x9fa3…6ec5
$24,425 YES
Ethereum Up or Down 0x9fbc…a722
$5,667 YES
Solana Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM… 0x9fd5…df7f
$33,223 NO
Next Prime Minister of Canada 0x9fef…17db
$62,013 NO
XRP Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET 0xa008…5038
$5,172 YES
XRP Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET 0xa022…8895
$1,813 NO
Dogecoin Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00… 0x9d0e…b55c
$2,406 NO
Will there be a US recession this year? 0x9d28…edb9
$316 YES
Fed Decision in July? 0x9d41…2616
$474 YES
Solana above $200? 0x9d5a…5e72
$14 NO
Dogecoin Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00… 0x9d74…96cf
$120 NO
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Natus Vincere (BO3) 0x9d8d…cf2c

Market brief

Current distribution of market expectations

Open interest $349.16M

24h volume $31.27M

France

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen 35% Yes No

Jordan Bardella 2% Yes No

$126.6MVol. 30 apr French Election

Highest temperature in Paris on September 5?

20°C or below 0% Yes No

21°C 0% Yes No

$29.2KVol. 5 sept Weather

Highest temperature in Paris on September 6?

26°C or below 2% Yes No

27°C 4% Yes No

$17.7KVol. 6 sept Weather

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

Marine Le Pen 87% Yes No

Jordan Bardella 12% Yes No

$364.2KVol. 17 apr Politics

French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?

Éric Zemmour 87% Yes No

Jordan Bardella 8% Yes No

$77.9KVol. 23 apr Elections

Lowest temperature in Paris on September 5?

14°C or below 30% Yes No

15°C 52% Yes No

$4.4KVol. 5 sept Weather

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

Marine Le Pen 87% Yes No

Jordan Bardella 10% Yes No

$116.2KVol. 30 apr Politics

Will France pass a national budget by December 31?

35%

Chance

Yes35¢ No66¢

$10.1KVol. 1 jan France

Le Pen names non-Bardella PM by...?

December 31, 2026 9% Yes No

April 17, 2027 23% Yes No

$2.6KVol. 18 apr France

France United Left Primary Winner

Clémentine Autain 1% Yes No

Lydie Massard 0% Yes No

$212.6KVol. 11 oct Politics

Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee

Segolene Royal 3% Yes No

Olivier Faure 22% Yes No

$43.9KVol. 1 nov France

Lowest temperature in Paris on September 6?

10°C or below 5% Yes No

11°C 11% Yes No

$225Vol. 6 sept Weather

2027 French Presidential Election: Attal vs Philippe

Gabriel Attal 10% Yes No

Édouard Philippe 63% Yes No

$3.2KVol. 18 apr France

National Rally Group Seat Count after French Senate Election?

$6.7KVol. 13 oct France

French Senate Election: Most Seats?

Les Républicains 97% Yes No

$2.9KVol. 13 oct France

SER Seat Count after French Senate Election?

56-58 19% Yes No

$11.2KVol. 13 oct France

Next President of the National Rally in 2026?

Jordan Bardella 96% Yes No

Marine Le Pen 1% Yes No

$10.6KVol. 26 oct France

Les Républicains Seat Count after French Senate Election?

117-120 24% Yes No

$16.2KVol. 13 oct France

French Senate Election: 2nd Most Seats?

Les Républicains 4% Yes No

$8.9KVol. 13 oct France

French election called by...?

July 31, 2026 0% Yes No

December 31, 2025 0% Yes No

$1.1MVol. 1 jan Politics