Polybet

Trade what happens next

Trade probabilities on future events. Each position’s price is set by supply and demand.

Live tape

$33,768 YES
LoL: Myth Esports vs Dynasty (BO3) 0xa29d…09a1
$240 YES
Dogecoin Up or Down - September 6, 8PM ET 0xa2b6…41fe
$5,940 NO
Dogecoin Up or Down - September 6, 8PM ET 0xa2cf…7a5b
$958 YES
NBA: LeBron James Next Team 0xa2e9…b2b7
$387 NO
Solana Up or Down - September 6, 8PM ET 0xa302…eb14
$439 YES
Bitcoin Up or Down 0xa31b…2371
$47 NO
XRP Up or Down - September 6, 8PM ET 0xa335…5bcd
$1,729 NO
Trump approval above 50%? 0xa34e…942a
$1,191 YES
XRP Up or Down - September 6, 8PM ET 0xa03b…c0f1
$67 NO
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 8PM ET 0xa054…f94e
$694 YES
Presidential Election Winner 2028 0xa06e…31ab
$989 YES
Ethereum Up or Down - September 6, 8PM ET 0xa087…6a07
$356 NO
XRP Up or Down - September 6, 8PM ET 0xa0a1…a264
$74 YES
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Natus Vincere (BO3) 0xa0ba…dac1

Market brief

Current distribution of market expectations

Open interest $349.16M

24h volume $31.27M

Fed

Fed Decision in September?

50+ bps decrease 0% Yes No

25 bps decrease 0% Yes No

$95.6MVol. 16 sept fomc

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps) 93% Yes No

1 (25 bps) 4% Yes No

$51.3MVol. 31 dec Rewards 200, 4.5, 50 Deprec

Fed rate hike in 2026?

72%

Chance

Yes72¢ No28¢

$8.7MVol. 9 dec CPI Release

Fed Decision in October?

50+ bps decrease 1% Yes No

25 bps decrease 5% Yes No

$1.3MVol. 29 oct Fed

Fed rate hike by...?

April Meeting 0% Yes No

June Meeting 0% Yes No

$2.8MVol. 29 oct Fed

Fed Decision in December?

50+ bps decrease 1% Yes No

25 bps decrease 5% Yes No

$528.8KVol. 10 dec Fed

Fed rate cut by...?

January Meeting 0% Yes No

March Meeting 0% Yes No

$3.4MVol. 8 jan Jerome Powell

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

3%

Chance

Yes3¢ No97¢

$190.9KVol. 1 jan Business

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

0 (0 bps) 28% Yes No

1 (25 bps) 41% Yes No

$286.4KVol. 1 jan Fed

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Hike–Pause–Hike 11% Yes No

Hike–Pause–Pause 13% Yes No

$10.9KVol. 10 dec Fed

Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

Cut–Pause–Pause 0% Yes No

Cut–Pause–Cut 0% Yes No

$831.8KVol. 16 sept Fed

Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

Cut–Pause–Pause 0% Yes No

Cut–Pause–Cut 0% Yes No

$746.6KVol. 29 oct Fed

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↑ 5.0% 2% Yes No

↑ 5.5% 3% Yes No

$1.8MVol. 31 dec Jerome Powell

How many dissent at the September Fed meeting?

0 11% Yes No

1 16% Yes No

$13.9KVol. 17 sept Fed

Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?

December 31, 2026 3% Yes No

June 30, 2027 11% Yes No

$30.3KVol. 1 jul Fed

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

May 30 0% Yes No

December 31 17% Yes No

$444.4KVol. 1 jan Fed Chair

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

2.25% 0% Yes No

$6.8MVol. 9 dec Fed Rates

Fed Decision in January?

50+ bps decrease 4% Yes No

25 bps decrease 14% Yes No

$62.2KVol. 28 jan Fed

Jerome Powell federally charged by...?

December 31, 2026 2% Yes No

June 30, 2026 0% Yes No

$319.0KVol. 1 jan Fed

Lisa Cook officially out as Fed Governor by...?

September 30 2% Yes No

October 31 4% Yes No

$7.9KVol. 1 jan Fed