Polybet

Trade what happens next

Trade probabilities on future events. Each position’s price is set by supply and demand.

Live tape

$1,150 YES
Ethereum Up or Down 0x9e8b…02ca
$106 NO
Ethereum Up or Down 0xa1d1…46bc
$1,088 NO
Solana Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM… 0xa1eb…7f19
$273 YES
Fed Decision in July? 0xa204…b775
$2,580 NO
Ethereum Up or Down 0xa21e…efd2
$7,328 YES
Bitcoin Up or Down 0xa237…282f
$2,868 NO
Ethereum Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00… 0xa250…608b
$19,675 YES
Trump approval above 50%? 0xa26a…98e8
$73 NO
LoL: Myth Esports vs Dynasty (BO3) 0xa283…d145
$33,768 YES
LoL: Myth Esports vs Dynasty (BO3) 0xa29d…09a1
$240 YES
Dogecoin Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00… 0xa2b6…41fe
$5,940 NO
Dogecoin Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00… 0xa2cf…7a5b
$958 YES
NBA: LeBron James Next Team 0xa2e9…b2b7
$387 NO
Solana Up or Down - September 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM… 0xa302…eb14

Market brief

Current distribution of market expectations

Open interest $349.16M

24h volume $31.27M

AI

Which company has the best AI model end of September?

Anthropic 86% Yes No

$1.9MVol. 1 oct AI

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

Google 9% Yes No

Anthropic 60% Yes No

$1.0MVol. 1 jan Tech

OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?

1480+ 69% Yes No

1490+ 44% Yes No

$131.5KVol. 14 aug AI

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

Anthropic 75% Yes No

$149.2KVol. 1 nov AI

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

28%

Chance

Yes28¢ No73¢

$138.7KVol. 31 dec Tech

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

<$1.25T 1% Yes No

$1.25–$1.5T 2% Yes No

$587.6KVol. 1 jan Finance

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

↑$3.0T 27% Yes No

↑$2.5T 49% Yes No

$4.5MVol. 1 jan Finance

Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?

Anthropic 78% Yes No

OpenAI 21% Yes No

$179.9KVol. 1 oct AI

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?

↑$3.0T 6% Yes No

↑$2.5T 8% Yes No

$1.1MVol. 1 jan Finance

In which month will Anthropic IPO?

September 2026 3% Yes No

October 2026 81% Yes No

$147.0KVol. 1 jan AI

Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by...?

August 31 0% Yes No

October 31 69% Yes No

$14.9KVol. 1 dec AI

Next Sonnet Model: Text Arena Debut?

1470+ 40% Yes No

1480+ 29% Yes No

$10.6KVol. 1 jan AI

Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

50%+ 92% Yes No

55%+ 82% Yes No

$72.9KVol. 1 jan AI

Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)

Anthropic 46% Yes No

$76.4KVol. 1 oct AI

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?

↑ 1510 100% Yes No

↑ 1520 94% Yes No

$178.2KVol. 1 jan AI Benchmarks

Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

Alibaba 68% Yes No

Moonshot 26% Yes No

$206.1KVol. 1 oct AI

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?

1510 100% Yes No

1520 92% Yes No

$187.0KVol. 1 oct Tech

Will OpenAI's Astra model debut as #1? (Text Arena)

14%

Chance

Yes14¢ No86¢

$10.9KVol. 1 jul AI

Second-best AI Lab end of September?

Anthropic 17% Yes No

Meta 10% Yes No

$76.2KVol. 1 oct AI

Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of September?

Anthropic 84% Yes No

$53.0KVol. 1 oct AI