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How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
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0 (0 bps)
$8,912,448 Vol.
97%
1 (25 bps)
$3,563,444 Vol.
<1%
2 (50 bps)
$3,441,100 Vol.
<1%
3 (75 bps)
$2,991,006 Vol.
<1%
4 (100 bps)
$2,765,177 Vol.
<1%
5 (125 bps)
$3,014,438 Vol.
<1%
6 (150 bps)
$4,231,438 Vol.
<1%
7 (175 bps)
$3,532,592 Vol.
<1%
8 (200 bps)
$3,306,975 Vol.
<1%
9 (225 bps)
$4,302,913 Vol.
<1%
10 (250 bps)
$4,967,199 Vol.
<1%
11 (275 bps)
$5,288,182 Vol.
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
$4,113,589 Vol.
<1%
Rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the spe... This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Market Opened: Sep 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm- No recent trades