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Trump predictions & odds

Fed Decision in October?

No change

87%

Yes87%No14%

25 bps increase

14%

Yes14%No87%

$44M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 16

99%

Yes99%No1%

October 17

97%

Yes97%No3%

$14M Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 31

59%

Yes59%No42%

December 31

35%

Yes35%No65%

$41M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

16%

chance

Yes

No

$74M Vol.

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 18

99%

Yes99%No1%

October 21

99%

Yes99%No1%

$2M Vol.

Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by...?

December 31

39%

Yes39%No62%

October 31

11%

Yes11%No90%

$333K Vol.

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%

chance

Yes

No

$13M Vol.

Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase

79%

Yes79%No22%

No change

19%

Yes19%No82%

$4M Vol.

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

December 31

31%

Yes31%No70%

November 30

22%

Yes22%No79%

$2M Vol.

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