Polybet

Trade what happens next

Trade probabilities on future events. Each position’s price is set by supply and demand.

Live tape

$466 NO
XRP Up or Down - September 5, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET 0xb107…f046
$18,338 NO
Fed Decision in July? 0xb120…28a2
$28,225 YES
Bitcoin Up or Down 0xb13a…60ff
$9 NO
Ethereum Up or Down - September 5, 8:45PM-9:00… 0xb153…995c
$310 NO
Ethereum Up or Down - September 5, 8:45PM-9:00… 0xb16c…d1b8
$2,387 YES
Presidential Election Winner 2028 0xb186…0a15
$23 NO
Ethereum Up or Down 0xb19f…4272
$176 NO
Dogecoin Up or Down - September 5, 8:45PM-9:00… 0xb1b9…7ace
$77 YES
Will there be a US recession this year? 0xb1d2…b32b
$176 NO
Ethereum Up or Down 0xb1eb…eb88
$18 NO
Solana above $200? 0xb205…23e4
$88 YES
Next Prime Minister of Canada 0xaef1…50ac
$57 YES
Ethereum Up or Down - September 5, 8:45PM-9:00… 0xaf0b…8909
$20 NO
XRP Up or Down - September 5, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET 0xaf24…c165

Market brief

Current distribution of market expectations

Open interest $350.42M

24h volume $30.68M

All markets

Fed Decision in September?

50+ bps decrease 0% Yes No

25 bps decrease 0% Yes No

$95.8MVol. 16 sept fomc

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

14%

Chance

Yes14¢ No86¢

$14.0MVol. 1 jan Crypto

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Donald Trump 2% Yes No

J.D. Vance 50% Yes No

$699.1MVol. 7 nov United States

US Open ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Daniel Merida Aguilar

US Open ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Daniel Merida Aguilar 100% Yes No

Completed Match 100% Yes No

$1.1MVol. 11 sept Tennis

Brazil Presidential Election

Tarcisio de Freitas 0% Yes No

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 56% Yes No

$143.6MVol. 4 oct Politics

San Jose State vs. Eastern Michigan

San Jose State vs. Eastern Michigan 56% Yes No

Spread: Eastern Michigan (-4.5) 25% Yes No

$1.0MVol. 5 sept Sports

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 24% Yes No

Gavin Newsom 7% Yes No

$702.3MVol. 7 nov President

2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)

Jannik Sinner 0% Yes No

Carlos Alcaraz 47% Yes No

$19.8MVol. 13 sept US Open

UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion

Paris Saint-Germain 14% Yes No

Aston Villa 1% Yes No

$23.5MVol. 31 may UCL

Bitcoin above ___ on September 5?

68,000 100% Yes No

70,000 100% Yes No

$969.0KVol. 5 sept Bitcoin

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies 93% Yes No

$605.2KVol. 12 sept Sports

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds 90% Yes No

NRFI 100% Yes No

$576.2KVol. 12 sept Sports

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen 35% Yes No

Jordan Bardella 2% Yes No

$126.6MVol. 30 apr French Election

What price will Bitcoin hit in September?

↑ 100,000 5% Yes No

↑ 97,500 6% Yes No

$2.5MVol. 1 oct Bitcoin

US Open ATP: Valentin Vacherot vs Frances Tiafoe

US Open ATP: Valentin Vacherot vs Frances Tiafoe 2% Yes No

Completed Match 51% Yes No

$555.3KVol. 11 sept Tennis

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps) 93% Yes No

1 (25 bps) 4% Yes No

$51.3MVol. 31 dec Rewards 200, 4.5, 50 Deprec

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

May 31 0% Yes No

June 30 0% Yes No

$6.9MVol. 1 jul Politics

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 14% Yes No

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 20% Yes No

$1272.4MVol. 7 nov United States

Which company has the best AI model end of September?

Anthropic 86% Yes No

$1.9MVol. 1 oct AI

2026 Women’s US Open Winner (Tennis)

Aryna Sabalenka 25% Yes No

Iga Swiatek 14% Yes No

$9.1MVol. 13 sept US Open